To a certain extent, this risk can be compensated by the prompt renewal of the certification of the Nord Stream 2 operator by Germany - contrary to the information campaign, there has not yet been talk of a complete halt of the project. The entire infrastructure is ready for launch, for which only the political will of Germany is needed, and the solution of this issue is now outside the Russian competence. We should expect the opening of additional opportunities for Russian LNG supplies.
High gas prices in the EU and around the world will continue for the coming months, or even years. The article by RUSSTRAT examined in detail the issue of the inconsistency of the idea of "replacing" Russian gas with analogues, which implies the stability of demand for Russian gas in the EU.
The EU energy sector is facing serious turbulence, primarily due to the lack of attempts to compensate for the rapid increase in prices on the open market that began in the fall of 2021. The course announced by the European bureaucracy for, at the same time, liberalization of the market and the “green transition” to renewable energy unsupported by technological solutions led to a complete imbalance of the market back in December-January.
The situation with sanctions against Russian oil production and refining looks equally contradictory in terms of design and execution. On March 6, the US Treasury issued detailed instructions on how to purchase oil from Russia in circumvention of sanctions imposed by the US government.
The agency explains that the imposed financial sanctions against banks in the Russian Federation are not comprehensive, the ability to work through other banks remains. It is noted that companies need to use "bypass transactions", including using banks in third countries, where funds would be received in US dollars, and from there they would be transferred to the accounts of Russian companies, including in sub-sanctioned banks. It turned out that in this way the US Treasury also recommends working with wood, coal, uranium and refined petroleum products.
The ban on European technologies for oil refining, which was announced on February 25 by the head of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der Leyen, according to Brussels, will not allow Russia to modernize the refinery. In this regard, the risks can be assessed as moderate - the main peak of the modernization of Russian refineries occurred in 2010-2019, in addition, European technologies are not unique.
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